Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.